Close-game kings Canberra show value of clutch wins

An analysis of the opening 20 rounds of the season shows there has been 61 games considered close this year, where the margin was six points or less in the final five minutes.

Canberra have by far the best record of any team in those games, winning eight and being beaten just once by North Queensland in round four.

Otherwise, wins over Cronulla, Melbourne, Newcastle, St George Illawarra, the Dolphins, Warriors, Sydney Roosters and Wests Tigers have all come at the clutch.

That has come with a spine rising to be one of the NRL's most reliable, with Jamal Fogarty's calmness key and enough x-factor to pull off comebacks.

Nowhere has that been more evident than in fullback Kaeo Weekes's chip-and-chase try to come from behind and beat Melbourne in Magic Round this year.

"It's just determination, being hungry," Weekes said. 

"No one wants to let anyone down. In those tough times and periods in the game we all lean on each other. We're not just leaning on one person. 

"Everyone is fighting for each other and everyone has that same goal. 

"You can see it on the weekend when we get ourselves into tough periods and get our way out."

Canberra's ability to win games that are in the balance late takes on even greater significance when considering the ladder ahead of Sunday's clash with Newcastle.

If the first-placed Raiders' record in those games was reversed to 1-8, they would almost be out of finals contention. 

Even if half of their close wins went the other way, they would be fighting for a spot in the eight.

Instead, Ricky Stuart's men are runaway favourites for the minor premiership.

"It will put us in good stead for finals," Weekes said.

"We have had a couple of games where we have had to come from behind and a couple where we have almost been chased down. 

"It's just finding that balance of still attacking the game when in front and getting after it when behind."

Fellow top-four team the Warriors also have a great record in close games with six wins and two losses, while Canterbury are 5-2.

While they can all start planning for finals, the difference is also evident at the other end of the ladder.

The Dragons have lost seven matches that were in the balance in the final five minutes, the Tigers six.

Had the clubs won even half of those matches, they too would be in finals contention. 

Instead, their seasons are effectively over with 2025 very much a "what-if" kind of season.

YOUR TEAM'S 2025 RECORD IN CLOSE GAMES:

Canberra: 8-1

Warriors: 6-2

Canterbury: 5-2

North Queensland: 5-3-1

South Sydney: 5-4

Penrith: 3-3-1

Wests Tigers: 5-6

Melbourne: 3-4

Newcastle: 3-4

Sydney Roosters: 3-4

Brisbane: 2-3

St George Illawarra: 4-7

Cronulla: 2-4

Dolphins: 2-4

Gold Coast: 1-2

Manly: 1-3

Parramatta: 1-3

(Rounds 1-20 only)

Australian Associated Press